Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA?

by HatchInBrooklyn, Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 12:52:44 PM EST

It's looking more and more likely that in 2008 Virginia's 13 electoral votes could go to a Democrat for the first time in four decades. With Mark Warner on the ballot, a generic Democrat has an 11 point advantage over a generic Republican. And a new Washington Post poll of the state seems to back-up Senator Barack Obama's contention that he, of all the Democratic candidates, has the best chance to bring traditionally "Red" Southern states into play.

In their new poll of the 2008 Virginia Senate race, the Washington Post also asked respondents about the Presidential election. And while Senator Clinton seems to have a clear lead in the primaries, the response to another question seems to indicate that Senator Obama would be the strongest Democrat in Virginia's General Election.

While only 21% of respondents said they "Definitely Would" vote for Obama if he were the nominee (Clinton came in at 30%), a whopping 39% of the rest said that they still "Would Consider" pulling the lever for him in November of 2008. Clinton's "Would Consider" number is only 25%, putting the total number of people who "Definitely Would" or "Would Consider" voting for her (let's call it her "Potential Support") at 55% to Barack's 60%. And the percentage of voters who "Definitely Would Not" vote for Senator Obama--35%--is significantly lower than Clinton's 44%.

On the Republican side, McCain and Giuliani appear to be the strongest candidates, with "Potential Support" of  54% and 51%, respectively. Romney and Thompson look unelectable in Virginia, and Giuliani has a higher "Would Not Consider" number and less "Potential Support" than any of the three leading Democrats. So unless the Republicans nominate McCain, it may be relatively easy for a Democrat to win Virginia next year.

Matt Yglesias has more analysis over at The Atlantic.

Personally, I don't really like talking about electability. The "most electable" candidate won the primaries in 2004 and we don't have much to show for it. But for those folks who do take electability into account when deciding which candidate to support, this poll--and the new poll showing Clinton failing to turn Nevada blue in the General Election--might be yet another reason to consider supporting Barack Obama.



Tags: barack obama, polls, 2008 election, virginia (all tags)

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Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

Actually, as SurveyUSA showed two weeks ago in their Virginia poll, when they actually asked about candidate matchups instead of this "consider" stuff, well....


by BruinKid on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 12:59:36 PM EST

Whaddaya know. (none / 0)

You CAN post pictures in the comments!  Huh.  I did not know that.  Heh, ya learn something new every day.  :-)


by BruinKid on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Whaddaya know. (none / 0)

Yeah, you are just prevented from posting Youtubes in the comments (only in diaries you can.)


by georgep on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, But... (2.00 / 1)

I don't dispute the findings of that particular poll. But at this early stage, who knows how accurate these General Election match-ups really are? Asking who people would "consider" might be even more effective at this point in the race, given the fact that not a single vote has been cast in the primaries. The Post poll gives a good sense of voters' general impressions of the leading candidates, which we can't necessarily get from the match-ups.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, But... (none / 0)

Thats a bizarre interpretation and comment.

You discount actual polling data and say we should rely on who they would consider .

Sorry to be harsh but thats an incredible statement.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Listen... (none / 0)

I'm not disputing "polling data," as both of these polls give us "actual polling data." The SurveyUSA data doesn't cancel out the Washington Post data, they're different approaches to looking at the race. And thirteen months out from the general election, I think both polls are valuable.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Listen... (none / 0)

The aim of your diary is to find out who can win Virginia right , I suspect you didn't know that there were polls they had the head to head matchup , now that those have been brought to your attention , you are better off taking that information and accepting that the rationale for your diary has been taken apart.

This is not an attempt to be rude , but the line of argument that you are following doesn't make any sense .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

To the contrary... (none / 0)

I read those head-to-heads when they came out, and commented on diaries that addressed them. This diary is an analysis of the new Post poll.

Anyway, I don't think you're being rude, no offense taken. I'm just trying to make my case.

by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, But... (none / 0)

I think you might be misunderstanding his/her point.  The idea is that the poll might show that Obama has a lot of potential to grow.


One Million Strong --- Join up
by psericks on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, But... (none / 0)

Ok if that is his intent , then he might have a point , but what I think is that he/she wasn't aware that there was a head to head matchup out there which is understandable and his/her aim was to try and determine who can win VA.

Thats why I find his comments to be bizarre . However if he says he has room to grow and thats the point of the diary then I don't dispute that .

But I didn't ge that from his diary and comments.

However if I am wrong , i reserve the right to apologize .

Giggle.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:32:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Room To Grow" (none / 0)

If that's how you'd prefer I phrase it, fine. What I said is that Obama's percentage of potential support is slightly higher than Clinton's, and he has far fewer voters dead-set against him at this point in the race. To me, that suggests he's got a better chance to win. Based on Hillary's stronger definite support, voting for Obama is more of a risk; he's been saying exactly that in his stump speech. But it's a risk that could make the difference in the General Election.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:40:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Room To Grow" (none / 0)

ok you make a solid point and if thats your intent then i apologize.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Margin of Victory is meaningless (none / 0)

Why are Edwards supporters so hung up on these margin of victory numbers? We have winner-take-all elections and it doesn't matter if a candidate wins by a nose or in a landslide.

We need the candidate who's most competetive in the states that can deliver the most electoral votes. That's all that really matters.


by LakersFan on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 02:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

Tons of evidence that Obama is by far the weaker candidate when it comes to GE electability.   Scores of it, all of it discussed here.

I rather doubt that anyone will go for a dubious "55% to 60%" combined difference when indeed Clinton's "would definitely vote for" number is almost 10% higher than Obama's in this poll (signifying soft support for Obama in the first place.)


by georgep on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:11:36 PM EST

Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

No, your interpretation is incorrect.  Clinton is clearly the winner in VA.


by truthteller2007 on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:12:44 PM EST

Pardon Me? (none / 0)

Do you mean she's clearly the winner in the Virginia primary? I stated flat-out that she's got a big advantage there, though I'll add that the results in the early states could easily change that


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:19:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

Yeah the surveyusa actually has done head to head matchups that contradict your claim a la virginia.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:18:14 PM EST

Match-Ups (none / 0)

See my response to BruinKid upthread.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

30% are committed to vote for Hillary, she just needs to win 20%, which can easily come from those who might consider.

It shows the depth of her support and the potentiality of Hillary winning those important 13 electoral votes.


by American1989 on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:23:04 PM EST

Re: Obama: Our Best Chance To Win VA? (none / 0)

BTW, I was going to include the result of this VA poll in a larger diary as more proof that Obama's and Edward's attacks have fallen flat and on their faces, as Clinton's numbers have gone up sharply in Virginia from what we had seen previously:

Clinton  45%

Obama 27%

Edwards 11%

Strange that that part isn't mentioned in this diary, a lead of almost 20% in Virginia.  


by georgep on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:24:19 PM EST

Re: 9 out of 10 polls show Obama (none / 0)

9 out of 10 polls released by the all the major organizations such as surveyusa, Rasmussen, ARG, Cook in the "Swing States" of VA,FL,OH,IA,NH,WV,WI,CO,NV,NJ have CONSISTENLY shown that Barack Obama is the WEAKEST Candidate for the General elections among Edwards, Clinton & Obama.

So I don't know where you are getting those conclusions.

Edwards or Clinton would do much better than Obama in the GE based on all almost all these surveys in the last 60 days.


by labanman on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:26:54 PM EST

Re: 9 out of 10 polls show Obama (none / 0)

Besides, this is like putting the carriage ahead of the horse.

As it is, Obama is having a very tough time convincing his fellow democrats that he is the best candidate for the job. He is consistently trailing Clinton by 20 points to as much as 40 points.

He can't even convince his own people, the African-American community to give him solid support. ( He is losing to Clinton even among Black voters, if I may add Hispanics, and Asian-Americans)

So how in the world can he possibly convince large numbers of independent, non-partisan, much more to moderate & conservative, predominantly white voters in Red states to vote for him over a republican?

The current facts don't support that.

Hillary or Edwards would do much better than him.

P.S. Even among Edwards supporters. A poll released yesterday shows that if Edwards dropped out of the race, Hillary Clinton would be their top 2nd choice. So what does that say about Obama
s appeal even among progressive democrats.


by labanman on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 01:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 9 out of 10 polls show Obama (none / 0)

Interesting that Hillary is the top 2nd choice among Edwards supporters- no wonder his constant attacks on her are leading people to drop him.


by reasonwarrior on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 02:21:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doesn't pass the sniff test (none / 0)

Obama wouldn't do well in VA.  Not out in the southwest or in the areas around Norfolk or Virginia Beach.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 08:10:34 PM EST


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